This imaginary problem does not rely on any real situation.
A virus is spreading across the world – it kills without treatment. A medicine does exist and it heals an ill patient but kills a healthy one. A proper testing method has not been invented yet.
The virus problem
Fortunately a medical company is developing a test that will reveal whether you are a carrier or not. This is what they know:
- According to trustworthy observations 1.300% of population will get infected.
- The test is 94.90% reliable.
- The reliability of a negative diagnosis is 98.75%.
You get chosen randomly to the test and you will be announced as an infected person.
Would you take the medicine?
See the solutions below: