This imaginary problem does not rely on any real situation.

A virus is spreading across the world - it kills without treatment. A medicine does exist and it heals an ill patient but kills a healthy one. A proper testing method has not been invented yet.

The virus problem

Fortunately a medical company is developing a test that will reveal whether you are a carrier or not. This is what they know:

  • According to trustworthy observations 1.300% of population will get infected.
  • The test is 94.90% reliable.
  • The reliability of a negative diagnosis is 98.75%.

You get chosen randomly to the test and you will be announced as an infected person.

Would you take the medicine?

See the solutions below: